Posts
Two- Four-Six - Eight Trump is Collecting Delegates
Donald Trump has harvested the crop of anti-Government and anti-Obama hatred sown by Republicans for at least the past eight years. The US is a nation, that has fared better than the rest of the world over he oast seven years. It has found ways to mute the aggression of its most formidable enemies, and created a wave of world peace. Yet, millions of its citizens sit in states pf discontent to utter boiled blood dissatisfaction. The Republicans have mastered the art of denying some conspicuous points progress to America and then blaming the result on President Obama.
Masters of the Obama-blame
Sarah Palin blamed her miscreant son’s arrest and criminal behavior on the President- past traumatic combat stress for a soldier that never saw combat- it was Obama’s fault said the woman who failed to raise her son to be a law abiding citizen. So it is in the Republican obsession over the Black President- everything that can be wrong is Obama’s doing. When they cut embassy security funds twice before Benghazi attacks they blamed both Obama and Clinton for the ensuing security faults but never their own reckless budget axe. The people will eventually see the game that the GOP has played, their assault on America in order to satisfy their racially motivated hatred of a good and decent President.
The real blame for the dysfunction in government is the weird sect of House Republicans. cult of anger, they believe they cannot compromise in politics—the very art of compromise. The real blame for the shortcomings of healthcare, the economy, the crumbling infrastructure- the Obama-blame game- is that Republicans sabotage the US economy for political gain.
The Republican Political Landscape
The Republkicans have created a cultof disbelief and anger over genrally false and insubstantial things. They balme the deficit Democrats although largely contributed to by Bush and the fool wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The claim that cuttting taxes has a perpetual prioroty over relief for American families, and they fight for greater concentration of wealth, more pollution, and more climate-changing human activity. Even as Florida and the US coastlines have begun to sink under the sea, they deny climate change from human activity. They demonize the patient and wise leadership from Pres. Obama, and paint a weird and bleak scene of American weakness.
To the more clear visioned among us, and to most of the rest of the world, so many polar opposites ring true. The US has maintained remarkable achievements and exceptional leadership in the most traumatic times in recent human history. To the republicanworld Obama is weak and Putin os strong and successful. In reality, Russia economy is in tatters, its military over extended and burdening its economy. Pensioners suffer deprivation, and hunger has crept into the seams. They survive on jingos of great victory against overwhelmed opponents like the Ukraine and Syrian opposition to the murderous Assad regime. In contrast, the US has marched steadily from the brink of the Bush depression with job growth and an expanding economy. It enjoys pre-eminent world influence and has not initiated another war since 2008- perhaps the most remarkable feat of all.
The driving force behind the ascendency of Donald trump has been the anger of Republican voters. Despite its contrived origins and the fact that it has been caused by Republican incompetence, they manage to blame Obama and Democrats. Trump has used his celebrity status to forge leads against numerous and mediocre opponents. The field of Republican candidates was large but extremely shallow. One can hardly remember a more un-accomplished and less convincing field in national elections.
The Republican Political Landscape
The Republkicans have created a cultof disbelief and anger over genrally false and insubstantial things. They balme the deficit Democrats although largely contributed to by Bush and the fool wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The claim that cuttting taxes has a perpetual prioroty over relief for American families, and they fight for greater concentration of wealth, more pollution, and more climate-changing human activity. Even as Florida and the US coastlines have begun to sink under the sea, they deny climate change from human activity. They demonize the patient and wise leadership from Pres. Obama, and paint a weird and bleak scene of American weakness.
To the more clear visioned among us, and to most of the rest of the world, so many polar opposites ring true. The US has maintained remarkable achievements and exceptional leadership in the most traumatic times in recent human history. To the republicanworld Obama is weak and Putin os strong and successful. In reality, Russia economy is in tatters, its military over extended and burdening its economy. Pensioners suffer deprivation, and hunger has crept into the seams. They survive on jingos of great victory against overwhelmed opponents like the Ukraine and Syrian opposition to the murderous Assad regime. In contrast, the US has marched steadily from the brink of the Bush depression with job growth and an expanding economy. It enjoys pre-eminent world influence and has not initiated another war since 2008- perhaps the most remarkable feat of all.
The driving force behind the ascendency of Donald trump has been the anger of Republican voters. Despite its contrived origins and the fact that it has been caused by Republican incompetence, they manage to blame Obama and Democrats. Trump has used his celebrity status to forge leads against numerous and mediocre opponents. The field of Republican candidates was large but extremely shallow. One can hardly remember a more un-accomplished and less convincing field in national elections.
Winner Take All
Trump leads in delegates. Ten remaining states and a territory hold winner-take-all elections according to the Republican National Committee: New Jersey, New York, California, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Arizona, Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Based on polls and expectations Trump can win a large number of these states, according to some he may be favored to win all of them against sometimes token opposition from Kascih and Cruz. The other states divide delegates in proportion to votes and trump will contend in all of the jurisdictions up until the convention oin Cleveland in July. The Winner take all states offer Trump hios greater opportunities to score rapidly and apporach the 1237 needed for nomination. One likely path includes
California(176), New York ( 95) Pennsylvania (71), New Jersey(50), Ind (57), and Arizona (58) fpr a total of 506 delegates. This would raise his total to about 1182. The remaining fifty odd delegates would come from some combination of West Virginai(35 ) and Washington ( 45). There are a number of states left out of the equation here that would add proportional delegate selections to Trumps total. Therre is much current speculation about a brokered convention, however, one must also consider the relartive strength of Trump versus Cruz and Kasich; Trump will be favored in all but a handful of the remaining contests.
California(176), New York ( 95) Pennsylvania (71), New Jersey(50), Ind (57), and Arizona (58) fpr a total of 506 delegates. This would raise his total to about 1182. The remaining fifty odd delegates would come from some combination of West Virginai(35 ) and Washington ( 45). There are a number of states left out of the equation here that would add proportional delegate selections to Trumps total. Therre is much current speculation about a brokered convention, however, one must also consider the relartive strength of Trump versus Cruz and Kasich; Trump will be favored in all but a handful of the remaining contests.
The Delegate Chase
Florida and Ohio have run with Trump winning all of Florida’s delegates and jettisoning Marco Rubio to the trash bin of Republican electoral politics. New York and California are the larger of the remaining winner take all states with 95 and 176 respectively. The big delegate hauls will be in Indiana, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. They each award all for the winner. Against opposition supplied by the mistrusTed Cruz and the cash-strapped John Kasich, Trump will be favored to win a large share. The dark cloud for Trump may be that spome winner take all contests and primaries are closed and not easily accessible to his independent followers. He should continue to rack up chunks of delegates in prpprtional contests by gaining his usual 35- 40 percent vote tally and defeating the generally hapless Ted Cruz over and over. It is hard to see Trump with less than 1000 when he takes on the big three of NY, Cali, and Pennsylvania. That puts him in the area of 1150-1200.
Unpledged Dropouts
The unpledged delegates formerly committed to Rubio and other dropouts total about 300. This is fertile ground for Trump who can offer incentives for delegate co-operation. Hopefully, there are few star struck persons in this pool or those in need of a week of R&R in Florida, or this nomination may be a wrap.
The Brokered Convention
If Trump falls even one vote short of 1237, the GOP leaders will snatch the nomination away from him- so much is the fear of the downside of a Trump candidacy. The ensuing brokered convention would likely nominate its most electable figure, Speaker Paul Ryan. He would have the vast wealth of the Romney group as well as the Koch Brothers behind him for an unbeatable combination. His poisonous policies that would eviscerate the middle class and elderly and favor the rich and the polluters will be hidden inside of charming campaign themes and attacks on Clinton. The future of the Republican Party would be far brighter than that of the average American. With only the Latino and Black vote to act as a bulwark, the democrats would face an uphill struggle to keep the White House. Further, if no candidate reached the electoral threshold, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives.
No comments:
Post a Comment