Now On to Iran

Time tested formula...lose political support: start shooting. Or if your only tool is a hammer then treat all of your problems like nails. Any way it is seen, the US has taken the first step towards a round of hostilities with pre-nuclear Iran. And there is the obvious sarcasm that it must be done now before the window of opportunity to hammer a non-nuclear opponent disappears. So far the war/Republican election cycle has avoided nuclear opponents: Grenada, Panama, Iraq #1, Iraq#2. We have avoided Cuba, Somalia, Kenya, the Balkans and a host of others. So far the Democrats have not joined in...they seemed to have learned something from Vietnam.
For all of its success the war in Iraq has deteriorated into a civil war which cannot be disguised in the western press as anything resembling a military conflict. The US has armed one side intentionally but may have armed both over the years. Now i it is to be on the Iran there is a flimsy pretext that is more compelling than the WMD nonsense that preceded Iraq, we have put soldiers in the theater and now we must protect them. That will provide a surface plausibility until the decision to begin withdrawing by which time we could be fully and deeply engaged in Iran. The Public has lost confidence in the Bush Administration and this could be a test of the power of thew presidency of an historic proportion.

China and the Test

One result of the commitment of the U.S. Government to Iraq and Iran is that there is a vast opening for China and Europe to move forward and expand their respective areas of influence. China has taken bold and constructive(Darfur) steps in Africa. China has also moved ahead with its missile defense program. China may have determined that it needed to separate itself from the class of nations which could be blinded by US air power in the initial stages of an attack or an invasion..in the post Iraq world nearly every nation might reasonably regard the U.S as a potential aggressor per the Bush self defense doctrine. China now has tested the Bush Space defense doctrine and has clearly challenged the U.S. to back its policy of aggression against any potential threat to its use of space. China is now such a threat... but so is France and Britain..the doctrine is so broad it simply provides a pretext for a potential use of force or a selective aggression. China is simply too powerful to fall prey to the kind of in-your face build up and action in Iraq I and II. The U.S. then in part because it has exhausted its resources in the middle east is even poorly positioned to put on a show of force. So finally it seems the U.S. under Bush will have to negotiate with an equal and find a bloodless accommodation to sharing a resource : near Space. Obviously there will be difficulties but technology has pushed us further and further into near space so the resource itself is potentially unlimited.

2008 Clinton- Obama and the Buzz

The dream ticket for 2008 could be Clinton- Obama because these two will dominate the press in the big cities like no other two candidates on either side. They will also dominate international press coverage of the race...so why is this important... 2008 might become the year of the Buzz. The year when a presidential election got fully saturated in the modern media mix which has a new center of gravity in cyberspace.
Video on the web,news on the web, opinion on the web... the Republicans and their shock jock radio saturation...so big in 2004...might not be a blip on the screen in 2008. This might cost in the repeat -after- me -Republican voter machinery...what I call the cloning planet ( ..like in Star Wars..the Clone Army..never mind) radio was used to pound home the most emotion filled diatribes about Democrats, taxes, abortion, and anti gay stuff that perhaps occurred in the entire cycle. Those listeners may now be at their computers or You Tube, MySpace, Skype TV or on their PC phones or listening to techno or gospel on subscription radio while driving... point is the news coverage will matter because it is more difficult to purchase and it could even be... (gasp) news driven... go figure....

Iraq Is Not Vietnam

Iraq is not Vietnam...Iraq is a nation with a huge amount of a critical resource..its role in international commerce will not be overstated rather it emerges as the world turns to more and deeper energy needs. Iran -its dominant neighbor- is energy starved and seemingly bent on regional domination - so Iraq is not Vietnam it is far more critical to world peace. The U.S. invasion of Iraq has been a success. It appears the primary goals have been met: It was a foundation for the reelection of Bush, it provided tens of billions in profits to firms linked or closely linked to the Republican party; it still as the potential to deliver scores of billions in the future to businesses and individuals with ties to the Party and to enhance its fundraising apparatus. The destruction of Saddam was an incidental benefit fitting in with the theory that he or his government was responsible for the terror attacks on 9/11... a belief still held by millions of Americans. There have been economic benefits to the economy as a whole from the spending of an additional 3-400 Billion for the war. The conditions in Iraq were ultimately intended to be the bragging points for the 2008 election based on U.S. military dominance...this seems in doubt at this time but there is still time for change. The war of course crowds out domestic spending especially in States and cities with effective Democratic voting bases. The problem for the Republican Party may be in getting out of Iraq on a schedule consistent with the 2008 elections and the next generation of conflicts which might appear to be useful in the future. Iraq it appears has been far more useful than Vietnam in the context of domestic politics.