Ukraine at the Crossroads

 Arming Ukraine is the next test for the Western alliance in defense of Europe. The economic aid package that began in February will slowly help stabilize the economy. There is more than a military confrontation at stake in the battle for Donbass. The western sanctions have torn a hole in the Russian economy and once again exposed it for the paper tiger that it is. Despite years to diversify, it remains solidly stuck in the effort to keep burning fossil fuels despite the global dangers of climate change.

Ballots are More Powerful than Bullets
While Russia's military bristles and it is the assertive part of Russian power, it is still an army and its only useful for destroying things. When there is a need to rebuild and heal, then the dear resources are not bombs and bullets, but hospitals, food, and medicines. The economic power to build buildings and shelter masses will matter far more then the power to knock them down. Russia is lacking and will be for years to come  so deeply have the banking systems, sanctions, and deprivations wounded this predator.

 Grow Ukraine
Ukraine can deliver a blow for western freedom. If the west can join its needs for growth and the opportunity presented in Ukraine's potentially vibrant markets,then there is a combination that leads to victory. That a people on the doorstep of the Russian war machine could find uts own way, and its own way to a western style economy would be a devastating blow to Russia.  Russia has set itself as the arbiter of life in Ukraine and the other former Russian colonies in the Baltic and eastern Europe. Living well, and in the style chosen through a transparent democratic process would be the best revenge.

Economic Investment in Ukraine
We can see Ukraine as a fashion and arts area, an area with technology growth and Silicon Valley style Information Age industries. We can see them producing energy and alternative energy products; there on the border of one of the world's leading exporters of hydrocarbon pollutants. This would be a more effective arming of Ukraine than boatloads of tanks and defensive weaponry. The economic enabling effort will pay a deep and lasting dividend for the West.

Democracy Infrastructure
 Harnessing the patriotism and fervor that holds Ukraine against an impossible enemy is a worthy goal. Ukrainians must do this for themselves in the localized languages and traditions that also matter a great deal. Democracy will be born in a rough and uneven manner in Ukraine as it has been elsewhere, everywhere. But that is the way it should be, the give and take becomes the glue that keeps everyone focused on the outcome. Consensus is only valuable if  one can constantly test its validity. That is the measure of democracy, its usefulness in creating change for the benefit of the people. The fluid dynamics of democracy- need channels and platforms in Ukraine.

 Author's Note:
I recently visited Kiev  in late August, it was around the Independence Day celebration. The atmosphere in the Maidan was noticeable. Upbeat and optimistic, but most of all determined and patriotic. It mattered to be a Ukrainian, and it mattered that there was a celebration in Maidan where a beginning took hold. Democracy is a messy business, and as in many cases it comes in a delicate and tenuous beginning. So in Ukraine, a young nation, there are signs of the birth of democracy; it is the uneven and awkward stumbling, like a foal walking on shaky, new legs. The image of the newborn foal seems so appropriate because there is a counter vision of a hungered wolf. The spectre of Russian aggression as the wounded hunter seeks prey that it does not need, the callous wolf stalks on the East.

Bright sunny days and parades filled the festive square but everywhere were emblems of the fallen heroes, The men and women whose spirits remain in the cobblestone slopes of Instituts Street and the grand concourse. The soaring monolith symbolizes freedom and the fountain statues honor the legendary founders of Kiev. Fountains cool the warm legs and feet of smiling children who get raised up high to post their patriotic artwork on rows and rows of bulletin boards. Everything seems wheat field gold and sky blue.

There is fighting in the East. Casualties roll into Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipropetrovsk daily and surgeons toil to reap life from the ruins of battle. But here, there is sunshine and smiling mothers holding babies. Crowds surround street shows and everyone pauses to speak and respond to the call to courage. Everywhere there  are men in camouflage gear, and they remind that the day is pleasant but the greater day has not been won. Optimism and courage blend like the colors of the flag.  Early in this morning from the balcony of Hotel Ukraine, one could see a great banner marched up the step cobblestone hill. Along the memorials for the angels of the uprising, across the sane stones that ran red and felt the scorched heat of fires, hundreds of hands lift a block-long banner; it is the flag for which many endured so much suffering.

War and the Russian Winter

The Russian Winters are legendary for their impact on a war.  Invaders have in several moments of history pressed deep into Russia until defeated by the difficulty of supplies and the bitterness of the Russian Winters.  It is not surprising that the bitter cold is a weapon once again. Telling his Country the false belief that the failures of its government are a U.S. invasion through the puppet Ukraine Government, Russia has once again attacked the Ukraine. They have unleashed  a multi-faceted invasion in Donetsk sending tanks, rocket launchers and troops into the embattled region. No mind that there were a truces and ceasefires, no matter that delay after delay the scheduled peace talks have failed to materialize. Russia’s economy has suffered from Putin’s ridiculous leadership and now Ukraine must once again pay the price.

With more than 5,000 dead and thousands more wounded, the death toll does not slow Putin any more than world opinion.  The pretexts used to disguise the invasion, and deflect full blame, will disappear as soon as it is time to celebrate a victory. We saw this in play once before in the Crimea. First the green men (--) Russian troops in green outfits posing as volunteer fighters. Then, a rout of the overwhelmed brave Ukrainian Army.  Finally, a new piece of Russia will vote for independence or affiliation. Bit by bit- Putin consumes the weaker, unoffending neighbor- well, offending in the way that the people of Ukraine have decided to build a democracy.

 The sanctions have put a hole in the Russian economy. They were intended to place costs on the economy with as little pressure as possible on the average citizen- they have little voice in the decisions of the government. The average citizen can only receive the propaganda of the Russian state news agency.  We have seen that effect in the U.S., the world according to Fox News is a strange and completely fictional place. Those who digest it daily live in a fictional environment where Obama is a Great Satan and Healthcare destroys the moral fiber.

With the economy in tatters, Putin needs a victory and a diversion. A victory over a weakened ally is convenient and easy – if you don’t mind killing innocent people. A victory over democracy is important because it is an idea that is antithetical to Russian style government. Dictatorship may appear benign, but it is not, and Putin is a Dictator. By any reasoned assessment, his conduct is in violation of international law, and it costs lives every day.  The contrived rebellion in Eastern Ukraine is a provocation and the desperate efforts of a failed government.  Russia has the keys to peace, and always has. The lack of truth fouls the equation, the Russian people are also victims here.

Now once again the Russian Winter is a scene of war. The invaders are imaginary; the assault on Russia exists in the minds of Putin and a few greedy billionaires. The costs will continue to wipe out precious lives in Donetsk. The drive to advantage before settlement (--) like in the Crimea, involves taking land and boasting of Russian power.  It is ultimately just pathetic that one can so badly use such great strength and power, the faith of a great Nation,  and by such small men.

Peace or deeper war are equally at hand; there is a pattern here of Russia grabbing land before the peace talks. However having seen it before, I think the West will aid Ukraine's economy , and the sanctions are likely to increase to further punish Russia..