Breaking Up Iraq...

It appears that there are forces in Iraq determined to break up the nation into areas controlled by religious sects-three or four religion or ethnic based governments instead of the current US occupation sponsored government. It may lack the smooth and easy transition hoped for before the invasion but it may be the path chosen by the Iraqi people in post invasion Iraq. Only the Iraqi people have the power to end the bloodshed there- we do not --we could suppress it by putting a soldier on every corner in Baghdad but that would be done only to impress voters in the US. For western oil consumers stability in the supply is the main concern and if Dubai is any example, oil money can certainly reshape the physical environment and culture of an oil rich nation. A recent factor is that the terrorists elements that have largely come into Iraq in response to the presence of western ( non Muslim) armies will attempt to take over the vast wealth of Iraq and turn it into a powerful enemy for Israel, Europe, and the U.S.- this is certainly possible and the primary deterrent is the wealth of the country- that a broad class of rich and upper middle class people will exert a political control over the nation(s) that come after the invasion forces begin to withdraw. Still the dominant model for pro-western middle east governments will be non democratic governments such as Saudi Arabia(monarchy), Kuwait(Monarchy) Dubai( limited monarchy), Iran ( theocracy). A divided Iraq might offer significant opportunities for democracy but whether the US would be any more at ease with the eventual choices that might be made through democracy remains to be seen- due to oil and strategic politics, democracy is not the exclusive US interest in Iraq or the middle east generally.