Security Leakers Lose Trust

I notice the news media seems to have largely missed the point in the Trump -Russia meetings. Trump blurted classified information which by that voluntary action declassified it. The howls for treating him as the GOP would have treated Hillary are true to fact but useless. The GOP is not hostile to nor bent on destroying Trump. The salient point is the damage done to our national security apparatus which cannot be undone while Trump holds office. Allies will no longer freely share data that may reach the loose lips and eager-to-please Russia commander in chief. Russia, Mr. Lavrov in particular, has achieved a powerful moment over the US. By virtue of the meeting and the exclusive broadcast back to Russia, Russia has diminished US intelligence capacity. The pipeline now will reflect the guarding needed to protect sensitive data from Trump. It appears that the Russians have weakened our national security apparatus for the price of a round trip airfare Moscow to Washington. hdm

Syria Feeds the Trump Base and Putin's Russia

The recent and widely publicized bombardment of a Syrian government airfield dominated enthusuastic headlines. As news media seized the event with epic coverage and the Trump political base was seen in full Peacock. Beneath it all was a different version more close to truth, and it sugests that Trimp is following a script of Russian origi, a path pursuing Russian interests that exist in plain  opposition to US interests.

Following Putin's Script

The Russian connection began prior to the fall campaign and included some strong indications of  outside political influence and control, They include the below-listed items from the campaign and Convention.

• Weaken NATO -Policy change on NATO to reduce financial support, military involvement, and  political support
• Accept the Invasion of Ukraine- The Trump campaign proposed platform language and political support for Russia's illegal annexation and occupation of Crimea in the Ukraine.
• Reduce and eliminate Sanctions- The Obama Doctrine imposed severe sanctions on Russia fir its military aggression in Ukraine. The sanctions combined with oil slump have damaged the Russian economy and limited its ability to extend military power. Trump has proposed lifting the sanctions.

For a more fill discussion of Syria and Russian domination of US policy , one can start with this link and sources.  The Russia -Trump connection is a subject of a criminal investigation and possible obstruction of justice in the firing of FBI Director James Comey.

The Trump Base

Trump supporters are a key to future US elections and they have demonstrated a remarkable resilience in the face off evidence of lies and false promises. To the base, the Syria missile attack proved Trump defies Russia. They ignore that Trump gave Russia and advance warming of the attack, that Russia was a potential role in countenancing the use of nerve gas weapons. They do ot connect Trump's acceptance of the Assad regime with the attack a few days later. They d not see that giving a small license to a murderous dictator puts millions at a large risk of harm.

Sources

R=The Washington Post reported posible collusion between  the Nationl Security Advisor and the Russian government to remove the economic sanctions aginst Russia,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/national-security-adviser-flynn-discussed-sanctions-with-russian-ambassador-despite-denials-officials-say/2017/02/09/f85b29d6-ee11-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?utm_term=.062d3a5fecd8

Two- Four-Six - Eight Trump is Collecting Delegates

 

Donald Trump has harvested the crop of anti-Government and anti-Obama hatred sown by Republicans for at least the past eight years.  The US is a nation, that has fared better than the rest of the world over he oast seven years. It has found ways to mute the aggression of its most formidable enemies, and created a wave of world peace. Yet, millions of its citizens  sit in states pf discontent to utter boiled blood dissatisfaction.  The Republicans have mastered the art of denying some conspicuous points progress to America and then blaming the result on President Obama.

Masters of the Obama-blame

Sarah Palin blamed her miscreant son’s arrest and criminal behavior on the President- past traumatic combat stress for a soldier that never saw combat- it was Obama’s fault said the woman who failed to raise her son to be a law abiding citizen. So it is in the Republican obsession over the Black President- everything that can be wrong is Obama’s doing. When they cut embassy security funds twice before Benghazi attacks they blamed both Obama and Clinton for the ensuing security faults but never their own reckless budget axe.  The people will eventually see the game that the GOP has played, their assault on America in order to satisfy their racially motivated hatred of a good and decent President.

The real blame for the dysfunction in government is the weird sect of House Republicans. cult of anger,  they believe they cannot compromise in politics—the very art of compromise. The real blame for the shortcomings of healthcare, the economy, the crumbling infrastructure- the Obama-blame game- is that Republicans sabotage the US economy for political gain.

The Republican Political Landscape 
The Republkicans have created a cultof disbelief and anger over genrally false and insubstantial things. They balme the deficit Democrats although largely contributed to by Bush and the fool wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The claim that cuttting taxes has a perpetual prioroty over relief for American families, and they fight for greater concentration of wealth, more pollution,  and more climate-changing human activity.  Even as Florida and the US coastlines have begun to sink under the sea, they deny climate change from human activity. They demonize the patient and wise leadership from Pres. Obama, and paint a weird and bleak scene of American weakness.

To the more clear visioned among us, and to most of the rest of the world, so many polar opposites ring true.  The US has maintained remarkable achievements and exceptional leadership in the most traumatic times in recent human history. To the republicanworld Obama is weak and Putin os strong and successful.  In reality, Russia economy is in tatters, its military over extended and burdening its economy. Pensioners suffer deprivation, and hunger has crept into the seams. They survive on jingos of great victory against overwhelmed opponents like the Ukraine and Syrian opposition to the murderous Assad regime. In contrast, the US has marched steadily from the brink of the Bush depression with job growth and an expanding economy. It enjoys pre-eminent world influence and has not initiated another war since 2008- perhaps the most remarkable feat of all.

The driving force behind the ascendency of Donald trump has been the anger of Republican voters. Despite its contrived origins and the fact that it has been caused by Republican incompetence, they manage to blame Obama and Democrats.  Trump has used his celebrity status to forge leads against numerous and mediocre opponents. The field of Republican candidates was large but extremely shallow. One can hardly remember a more un-accomplished and less convincing field in national elections. 

Winner Take All

Trump leads in delegates. Ten remaining states and a territory hold winner-take-all elections according to the Republican National Committee:  New Jersey, New York, California, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Arizona,  Nebraska, Montana,  South Dakota, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Based on polls and expectations Trump can win a large number of these states, according to some he may be favored to win all of them against sometimes token opposition from Kascih and Cruz.  The other states divide delegates in proportion to votes and trump will contend in all of the jurisdictions up until the convention oin Cleveland in July. The Winner take all states offer Trump hios greater opportunities to score rapidly and apporach the 1237 needed for nomination.  One likely path includes
California(176), New York ( 95) Pennsylvania (71), New Jersey(50), Ind (57), and Arizona (58) fpr a total of 506 delegates. This would raise his total to about 1182.   The remaining fifty odd delegates would come from some combination of West Virginai(35 ) and Washington ( 45). There are a number of states left out of the equation here that would add proportional delegate selections to Trumps total.  Therre is much current speculation about a brokered convention, however, one must also consider the relartive strength of Trump versus Cruz and Kasich; Trump will be favored in all but a handful of the remaining contests.

The Delegate Chase

Florida and Ohio have run with Trump winning all of Florida’s delegates and jettisoning Marco Rubio to the trash bin of Republican electoral politics. New York and California are the larger of the remaining winner take all states with 95 and 176 respectively. The big delegate hauls will be in Indiana, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. They each award all for the winner.  Against opposition supplied by the mistrusTed Cruz and the cash-strapped John Kasich, Trump will be favored to win a large share.  The dark cloud for Trump may be that spome winner take all contests and  primaries are closed and not easily accessible to his independent followers.  He should continue to rack up chunks of delegates in prpprtional contests  by gaining his usual 35- 40 percent vote tally and defeating the generally hapless Ted Cruz over and over. It is hard to see Trump with less than 1000 when he takes on the big three of NY, Cali, and Pennsylvania. That puts him in the area of 1150-1200.

Unpledged Dropouts

The unpledged delegates formerly committed to Rubio and other dropouts total about 300. This is fertile ground for Trump who can offer incentives for delegate co-operation. Hopefully, there are few star struck persons in this pool or those in need of a week of R&R in Florida, or this nomination may be a wrap.

The Brokered Convention

If Trump falls even one vote short of 1237, the GOP leaders will snatch the nomination away from him- so much is the fear of the downside of a Trump candidacy. The ensuing brokered convention would likely nominate its most electable figure, Speaker Paul Ryan.  He would have the vast wealth of the Romney group as well as the Koch Brothers behind him for an unbeatable combination.  His poisonous policies that would eviscerate the middle class and elderly and favor the rich and the polluters will be hidden inside of charming campaign themes and attacks on Clinton. The future of the Republican Party would be far brighter than that of the average American.  With only the Latino and Black vote to act as a bulwark, the democrats would face an uphill struggle to keep the White House. Further, if no candidate reached the electoral threshold, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives.

Taking Christie for the Wait

 

Trump arranged an endorsement New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Christie got to bathe in the afterglow of his finest campaign hours when he destroyed Marco Rubio in front of a national (disbelieving) audience.  Christie would have been a leading candidate and top of the VP list had it not been for his own fall from grace.  He fell over a bullying tactic in the George Washington Bridge Scandal- which should have landed him in jail. Instead, it was an albatross around his political neck.  Christie’s weight in political terms is marginal; I doubt it moves the scales in Trump’s favor one whit. It does add another and far more thoughtful voice to the Trump hysteria.

Christie has grabbed the one rope that kept him in the 2016 race in a meaningful way.  I doubt Christie could have won a primary in New Jersey or New York or Pennsylvania. These populous areas delegate rich areas were the natural advantages Christie had before his fall off the George Washington Bridge.  As a New Yorker, Trump hardly helps himself by adding Christie to his team as Vice President- although if no one better will accept it—it may fall to Christie. Trump needs balance from the South or West to truly enhance his national appeal. Brian Sandoval- the popular Governor of Nevada- would be a magic potion for the man who insults the Spanish-speaking world.

Christie Was the Republican Establishment

Christie was Governor of a big state and Chair of the Republican Governor’s Conference. But the GW Bridge Scandal put the serious Republican Party value of Christie to a minimum; outside of the press, there is not much of an impact except the appearance of sanity.  So much of Trump’s group of support has a tinge of lunatic sounds and actions. Sarah Palin appeals to bad parents who want to blame Obama for their miscreant children and incredibly phony patriots- people with their hair on fire about the fate of the country. Trump embarrasses himself by fighting with the Pope over faith, quoting two Corinthians, judging everyone on earth through his bigoted and egocentric filters, and pretending to be far more important than he is.  As a businessman or entertainment personality, few would miss him if he vanished tomorrow.

Rubio – Seriously?

The Republican Party would like to stop Trump and promote the incredibly weak and empty headed Marco Rubio. Rubio is the anti-Trump, he too has accomplished nothing in politics except self-promotion; unlike Trump, Rubio must scrounge for wealth from wealthy donors.  Rubio would be an hors d'oeuvre for an experienced politician like Clinton, or for the driving force that is Bernie Sanders. 

Rubio has little to no substance, his ideas are borrowed, and would comfort no one in need of action that he could possibly do anything except maybe force a teenage girl to have her incestuous rapist’s baby.  As an Hispanic or Latin, he is the anti- Hispanic or Latin—the Clarence Thomas of Latins—he acts as though he hates Latinos as much as his white racist sponsors. This is the saddest part of Rubio, pandering and turning on the people he historically represents—you can’t blame Obama for that.

Looking Forward to November

For Trump, the nomination is a waiting game. Keeping a momentum he cannot explain, by dominating the news like a bad boy rock star. Christie keeps the promise of someone to hold Rubio down.  In the zeal to defeat Hillary Clinton, Republicans will embellish and emblazon the nominee. They will endow him with super-strength and wisdom of ages. With Rubio, the golden adornments will look like a brown stain in the seat of a pair of white trousers. Rubio is an inflatable and deflate-able character.  At time, he does not have the caliber of ordinary people least mind a leader- he is on TV today mispronouncing the word CHOKE  as CHOCK  even spelling it out loud to show he can’t read well or think on his feet.  He plays the role of Presidential candidate like the fifty-year-old hooker on the street corner—waiting for someone with enough money to make her feel beautiful.

Ukraine at the Crossroads

 Arming Ukraine is the next test for the Western alliance in defense of Europe. The economic aid package that began in February will slowly help stabilize the economy. There is more than a military confrontation at stake in the battle for Donbass. The western sanctions have torn a hole in the Russian economy and once again exposed it for the paper tiger that it is. Despite years to diversify, it remains solidly stuck in the effort to keep burning fossil fuels despite the global dangers of climate change.

Ballots are More Powerful than Bullets
While Russia's military bristles and it is the assertive part of Russian power, it is still an army and its only useful for destroying things. When there is a need to rebuild and heal, then the dear resources are not bombs and bullets, but hospitals, food, and medicines. The economic power to build buildings and shelter masses will matter far more then the power to knock them down. Russia is lacking and will be for years to come  so deeply have the banking systems, sanctions, and deprivations wounded this predator.

 Grow Ukraine
Ukraine can deliver a blow for western freedom. If the west can join its needs for growth and the opportunity presented in Ukraine's potentially vibrant markets,then there is a combination that leads to victory. That a people on the doorstep of the Russian war machine could find uts own way, and its own way to a western style economy would be a devastating blow to Russia.  Russia has set itself as the arbiter of life in Ukraine and the other former Russian colonies in the Baltic and eastern Europe. Living well, and in the style chosen through a transparent democratic process would be the best revenge.

Economic Investment in Ukraine
We can see Ukraine as a fashion and arts area, an area with technology growth and Silicon Valley style Information Age industries. We can see them producing energy and alternative energy products; there on the border of one of the world's leading exporters of hydrocarbon pollutants. This would be a more effective arming of Ukraine than boatloads of tanks and defensive weaponry. The economic enabling effort will pay a deep and lasting dividend for the West.

Democracy Infrastructure
 Harnessing the patriotism and fervor that holds Ukraine against an impossible enemy is a worthy goal. Ukrainians must do this for themselves in the localized languages and traditions that also matter a great deal. Democracy will be born in a rough and uneven manner in Ukraine as it has been elsewhere, everywhere. But that is the way it should be, the give and take becomes the glue that keeps everyone focused on the outcome. Consensus is only valuable if  one can constantly test its validity. That is the measure of democracy, its usefulness in creating change for the benefit of the people. The fluid dynamics of democracy- need channels and platforms in Ukraine.

 Author's Note:
I recently visited Kiev  in late August, it was around the Independence Day celebration. The atmosphere in the Maidan was noticeable. Upbeat and optimistic, but most of all determined and patriotic. It mattered to be a Ukrainian, and it mattered that there was a celebration in Maidan where a beginning took hold. Democracy is a messy business, and as in many cases it comes in a delicate and tenuous beginning. So in Ukraine, a young nation, there are signs of the birth of democracy; it is the uneven and awkward stumbling, like a foal walking on shaky, new legs. The image of the newborn foal seems so appropriate because there is a counter vision of a hungered wolf. The spectre of Russian aggression as the wounded hunter seeks prey that it does not need, the callous wolf stalks on the East.

Bright sunny days and parades filled the festive square but everywhere were emblems of the fallen heroes, The men and women whose spirits remain in the cobblestone slopes of Instituts Street and the grand concourse. The soaring monolith symbolizes freedom and the fountain statues honor the legendary founders of Kiev. Fountains cool the warm legs and feet of smiling children who get raised up high to post their patriotic artwork on rows and rows of bulletin boards. Everything seems wheat field gold and sky blue.

There is fighting in the East. Casualties roll into Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipropetrovsk daily and surgeons toil to reap life from the ruins of battle. But here, there is sunshine and smiling mothers holding babies. Crowds surround street shows and everyone pauses to speak and respond to the call to courage. Everywhere there  are men in camouflage gear, and they remind that the day is pleasant but the greater day has not been won. Optimism and courage blend like the colors of the flag.  Early in this morning from the balcony of Hotel Ukraine, one could see a great banner marched up the step cobblestone hill. Along the memorials for the angels of the uprising, across the sane stones that ran red and felt the scorched heat of fires, hundreds of hands lift a block-long banner; it is the flag for which many endured so much suffering.

War and the Russian Winter

The Russian Winters are legendary for their impact on a war.  Invaders have in several moments of history pressed deep into Russia until defeated by the difficulty of supplies and the bitterness of the Russian Winters.  It is not surprising that the bitter cold is a weapon once again. Telling his Country the false belief that the failures of its government are a U.S. invasion through the puppet Ukraine Government, Russia has once again attacked the Ukraine. They have unleashed  a multi-faceted invasion in Donetsk sending tanks, rocket launchers and troops into the embattled region. No mind that there were a truces and ceasefires, no matter that delay after delay the scheduled peace talks have failed to materialize. Russia’s economy has suffered from Putin’s ridiculous leadership and now Ukraine must once again pay the price.

With more than 5,000 dead and thousands more wounded, the death toll does not slow Putin any more than world opinion.  The pretexts used to disguise the invasion, and deflect full blame, will disappear as soon as it is time to celebrate a victory. We saw this in play once before in the Crimea. First the green men (--) Russian troops in green outfits posing as volunteer fighters. Then, a rout of the overwhelmed brave Ukrainian Army.  Finally, a new piece of Russia will vote for independence or affiliation. Bit by bit- Putin consumes the weaker, unoffending neighbor- well, offending in the way that the people of Ukraine have decided to build a democracy.

 The sanctions have put a hole in the Russian economy. They were intended to place costs on the economy with as little pressure as possible on the average citizen- they have little voice in the decisions of the government. The average citizen can only receive the propaganda of the Russian state news agency.  We have seen that effect in the U.S., the world according to Fox News is a strange and completely fictional place. Those who digest it daily live in a fictional environment where Obama is a Great Satan and Healthcare destroys the moral fiber.

With the economy in tatters, Putin needs a victory and a diversion. A victory over a weakened ally is convenient and easy – if you don’t mind killing innocent people. A victory over democracy is important because it is an idea that is antithetical to Russian style government. Dictatorship may appear benign, but it is not, and Putin is a Dictator. By any reasoned assessment, his conduct is in violation of international law, and it costs lives every day.  The contrived rebellion in Eastern Ukraine is a provocation and the desperate efforts of a failed government.  Russia has the keys to peace, and always has. The lack of truth fouls the equation, the Russian people are also victims here.

Now once again the Russian Winter is a scene of war. The invaders are imaginary; the assault on Russia exists in the minds of Putin and a few greedy billionaires. The costs will continue to wipe out precious lives in Donetsk. The drive to advantage before settlement (--) like in the Crimea, involves taking land and boasting of Russian power.  It is ultimately just pathetic that one can so badly use such great strength and power, the faith of a great Nation,  and by such small men.

Peace or deeper war are equally at hand; there is a pattern here of Russia grabbing land before the peace talks. However having seen it before, I think the West will aid Ukraine's economy , and the sanctions are likely to increase to further punish Russia..

The Politics Of Falling Oil

Like a toy that fascinates beyond any reward, the oil producers in North Dakota have a new bauble. From the earlier days of only a few years back they have already advanced the recovery technology to substantial production increases from existing sites. Some heavily drilled areas such as the Fort Berthold Reservation, produce more than a third of  the overall million barrel per day yield from the enormous Bakken field.  The oil shale resources that have been developed by the controversial practice of hydraulic fracturing have changed the face of the oil industry.  Oil producer nations are now a global force in full retreat, and no longer able to dictate prices by advancing a convenient theory of impending scarcity, or scaling back production.

US Production Has Changed the Global Market

The world is awash in oil and oil reserves, while the Earth may not continuously produce fossil fuels, the ingenuity of mankind has made it appear to be an onion rather than a vessel. Technology turns new leaves and the half full glass is once again overflowing. Nations and businesses that invested in $95 per barrel oil only six months ago, now realize the price may fall below $50. In the United States, automobile owners see things they had forgotten existed, such as the number “$1” on front of the price per gallon at the pump.  I imagine few of them say thank you Mr. Obama, but the policies of his Administration – low-interest rates, steady job growth, and liberal leave to advance an environmentally risky technology, have paid enormous dividends for consumers around the globe. The U.S has set records for annual crude production.

Russia, Iran, and Venezuela Suffer

 Russia planned of $95 per barrel oil and free access to western bank financing. After the Obama sanctions and the impact of Obama banking and growth policies in the US, oil has fallen to near $50, the Ruble has collapsed, and the Russian economy is in a deep recession. Buoyed by controlled news and media, the Russian government remains popular and has slowed but not stopped the Invasion in Ukraine. The people do not know the sacrifices they make are not for the nation but likely to benefit a luxury class of millionaires. Venezuela and Iran have also fallen economically in lockstep with the fall of oil. Venezuela experiences critical domestic shortages, inflation, and negative growth. Iran, already faced with sanctions, now must wrestle with threats from ISIS as well as severe shortfall in revenues from oil. With limited access to international sources of financing, the government faces tight budgets and monetary constraints.

The overall impact is that the U.S. economy has gained steam, and with a short burst of discretionary consumer spending, the recovery has shown remarkable depth. There may yet be an unwanted corollary to repair the damage to the environment generally and to the water supply in particular as a result of wide spread recovery of shale oil deposits.