Ukraine at the Crossroads

 Arming Ukraine is the next test for the Western alliance in defense of Europe. The economic aid package that began in February will slowly help stabilize the economy. There is more than a military confrontation at stake in the battle for Donbass. The western sanctions have torn a hole in the Russian economy and once again exposed it for the paper tiger that it is. Despite years to diversify, it remains solidly stuck in the effort to keep burning fossil fuels despite the global dangers of climate change.

Ballots are More Powerful than Bullets
While Russia's military bristles and it is the assertive part of Russian power, it is still an army and its only useful for destroying things. When there is a need to rebuild and heal, then the dear resources are not bombs and bullets, but hospitals, food, and medicines. The economic power to build buildings and shelter masses will matter far more then the power to knock them down. Russia is lacking and will be for years to come  so deeply have the banking systems, sanctions, and deprivations wounded this predator.

 Grow Ukraine
Ukraine can deliver a blow for western freedom. If the west can join its needs for growth and the opportunity presented in Ukraine's potentially vibrant markets,then there is a combination that leads to victory. That a people on the doorstep of the Russian war machine could find uts own way, and its own way to a western style economy would be a devastating blow to Russia.  Russia has set itself as the arbiter of life in Ukraine and the other former Russian colonies in the Baltic and eastern Europe. Living well, and in the style chosen through a transparent democratic process would be the best revenge.

Economic Investment in Ukraine
We can see Ukraine as a fashion and arts area, an area with technology growth and Silicon Valley style Information Age industries. We can see them producing energy and alternative energy products; there on the border of one of the world's leading exporters of hydrocarbon pollutants. This would be a more effective arming of Ukraine than boatloads of tanks and defensive weaponry. The economic enabling effort will pay a deep and lasting dividend for the West.

Democracy Infrastructure
 Harnessing the patriotism and fervor that holds Ukraine against an impossible enemy is a worthy goal. Ukrainians must do this for themselves in the localized languages and traditions that also matter a great deal. Democracy will be born in a rough and uneven manner in Ukraine as it has been elsewhere, everywhere. But that is the way it should be, the give and take becomes the glue that keeps everyone focused on the outcome. Consensus is only valuable if  one can constantly test its validity. That is the measure of democracy, its usefulness in creating change for the benefit of the people. The fluid dynamics of democracy- need channels and platforms in Ukraine.

 Author's Note:
I recently visited Kiev  in late August, it was around the Independence Day celebration. The atmosphere in the Maidan was noticeable. Upbeat and optimistic, but most of all determined and patriotic. It mattered to be a Ukrainian, and it mattered that there was a celebration in Maidan where a beginning took hold. Democracy is a messy business, and as in many cases it comes in a delicate and tenuous beginning. So in Ukraine, a young nation, there are signs of the birth of democracy; it is the uneven and awkward stumbling, like a foal walking on shaky, new legs. The image of the newborn foal seems so appropriate because there is a counter vision of a hungered wolf. The spectre of Russian aggression as the wounded hunter seeks prey that it does not need, the callous wolf stalks on the East.

Bright sunny days and parades filled the festive square but everywhere were emblems of the fallen heroes, The men and women whose spirits remain in the cobblestone slopes of Instituts Street and the grand concourse. The soaring monolith symbolizes freedom and the fountain statues honor the legendary founders of Kiev. Fountains cool the warm legs and feet of smiling children who get raised up high to post their patriotic artwork on rows and rows of bulletin boards. Everything seems wheat field gold and sky blue.

There is fighting in the East. Casualties roll into Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipropetrovsk daily and surgeons toil to reap life from the ruins of battle. But here, there is sunshine and smiling mothers holding babies. Crowds surround street shows and everyone pauses to speak and respond to the call to courage. Everywhere there  are men in camouflage gear, and they remind that the day is pleasant but the greater day has not been won. Optimism and courage blend like the colors of the flag.  Early in this morning from the balcony of Hotel Ukraine, one could see a great banner marched up the step cobblestone hill. Along the memorials for the angels of the uprising, across the sane stones that ran red and felt the scorched heat of fires, hundreds of hands lift a block-long banner; it is the flag for which many endured so much suffering.

War and the Russian Winter

The Russian Winters are legendary for their impact on a war.  Invaders have in several moments of history pressed deep into Russia until defeated by the difficulty of supplies and the bitterness of the Russian Winters.  It is not surprising that the bitter cold is a weapon once again. Telling his Country the false belief that the failures of its government are a U.S. invasion through the puppet Ukraine Government, Russia has once again attacked the Ukraine. They have unleashed  a multi-faceted invasion in Donetsk sending tanks, rocket launchers and troops into the embattled region. No mind that there were a truces and ceasefires, no matter that delay after delay the scheduled peace talks have failed to materialize. Russia’s economy has suffered from Putin’s ridiculous leadership and now Ukraine must once again pay the price.

With more than 5,000 dead and thousands more wounded, the death toll does not slow Putin any more than world opinion.  The pretexts used to disguise the invasion, and deflect full blame, will disappear as soon as it is time to celebrate a victory. We saw this in play once before in the Crimea. First the green men (--) Russian troops in green outfits posing as volunteer fighters. Then, a rout of the overwhelmed brave Ukrainian Army.  Finally, a new piece of Russia will vote for independence or affiliation. Bit by bit- Putin consumes the weaker, unoffending neighbor- well, offending in the way that the people of Ukraine have decided to build a democracy.

 The sanctions have put a hole in the Russian economy. They were intended to place costs on the economy with as little pressure as possible on the average citizen- they have little voice in the decisions of the government. The average citizen can only receive the propaganda of the Russian state news agency.  We have seen that effect in the U.S., the world according to Fox News is a strange and completely fictional place. Those who digest it daily live in a fictional environment where Obama is a Great Satan and Healthcare destroys the moral fiber.

With the economy in tatters, Putin needs a victory and a diversion. A victory over a weakened ally is convenient and easy – if you don’t mind killing innocent people. A victory over democracy is important because it is an idea that is antithetical to Russian style government. Dictatorship may appear benign, but it is not, and Putin is a Dictator. By any reasoned assessment, his conduct is in violation of international law, and it costs lives every day.  The contrived rebellion in Eastern Ukraine is a provocation and the desperate efforts of a failed government.  Russia has the keys to peace, and always has. The lack of truth fouls the equation, the Russian people are also victims here.

Now once again the Russian Winter is a scene of war. The invaders are imaginary; the assault on Russia exists in the minds of Putin and a few greedy billionaires. The costs will continue to wipe out precious lives in Donetsk. The drive to advantage before settlement (--) like in the Crimea, involves taking land and boasting of Russian power.  It is ultimately just pathetic that one can so badly use such great strength and power, the faith of a great Nation,  and by such small men.

Peace or deeper war are equally at hand; there is a pattern here of Russia grabbing land before the peace talks. However having seen it before, I think the West will aid Ukraine's economy , and the sanctions are likely to increase to further punish Russia..

The Politics Of Falling Oil

Like a toy that fascinates beyond any reward, the oil producers in North Dakota have a new bauble. From the earlier days of only a few years back they have already advanced the recovery technology to substantial production increases from existing sites. Some heavily drilled areas such as the Fort Berthold Reservation, produce more than a third of  the overall million barrel per day yield from the enormous Bakken field.  The oil shale resources that have been developed by the controversial practice of hydraulic fracturing have changed the face of the oil industry.  Oil producer nations are now a global force in full retreat, and no longer able to dictate prices by advancing a convenient theory of impending scarcity, or scaling back production.

US Production Has Changed the Global Market

The world is awash in oil and oil reserves, while the Earth may not continuously produce fossil fuels, the ingenuity of mankind has made it appear to be an onion rather than a vessel. Technology turns new leaves and the half full glass is once again overflowing. Nations and businesses that invested in $95 per barrel oil only six months ago, now realize the price may fall below $50. In the United States, automobile owners see things they had forgotten existed, such as the number “$1” on front of the price per gallon at the pump.  I imagine few of them say thank you Mr. Obama, but the policies of his Administration – low-interest rates, steady job growth, and liberal leave to advance an environmentally risky technology, have paid enormous dividends for consumers around the globe. The U.S has set records for annual crude production.

Russia, Iran, and Venezuela Suffer

 Russia planned of $95 per barrel oil and free access to western bank financing. After the Obama sanctions and the impact of Obama banking and growth policies in the US, oil has fallen to near $50, the Ruble has collapsed, and the Russian economy is in a deep recession. Buoyed by controlled news and media, the Russian government remains popular and has slowed but not stopped the Invasion in Ukraine. The people do not know the sacrifices they make are not for the nation but likely to benefit a luxury class of millionaires. Venezuela and Iran have also fallen economically in lockstep with the fall of oil. Venezuela experiences critical domestic shortages, inflation, and negative growth. Iran, already faced with sanctions, now must wrestle with threats from ISIS as well as severe shortfall in revenues from oil. With limited access to international sources of financing, the government faces tight budgets and monetary constraints.

The overall impact is that the U.S. economy has gained steam, and with a short burst of discretionary consumer spending, the recovery has shown remarkable depth. There may yet be an unwanted corollary to repair the damage to the environment generally and to the water supply in particular as a result of wide spread recovery of shale oil deposits.

Cost -Effective Sanctions

Pursuing piece with banks rather bullets...

HDmooreConsult: Ukraine and the Wounded Russian Economy

Alternative to War

 For thousands of years and perfected in this era the use of warfare to resolve conflict has been the true constant of human history.  Now in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a turn about face, a decision to use a different battle plan- a bloodless battle.

HDmooreConsult: Obama Doctrine- International Conflict Management

Democracy Ablaze

It appeared those ghastly fires in EuroMajdan to be a Nation falling into ruin, civil war had begun from peaceful protests and harsh dictatorial reactions.  The Puppet Man in charge of Government allowed the strings to show, and the people- even the people who supported  Yanukovych  were appalled at his weakness.
It is true today that most Ukrainians prefer the Devil That They Know- Russia and all of her faults to the unknowns of affiliation with the West. The Orange Revolution not so far in the past that the excesses of market freedoms have been forgotten...yet, there was the protest, that grew, and was strengthened by the puny Puppet Man. The repression because he had been told to do so, the turn away from the West - because he had been told to do so, and the voices of his people that he ignored-- because he had been ordered to ignore his people.

Yulia  Tymoshenko is free and She promises to be a force, as well she should. There are many others, and as the paroxysms of birth wring and tug at the very heart of this young nation, there will be new faces and new ideas. Someone will emerge who can stand astride the divide between a too satisfied east and a too hungered west.

We have seen the chasm, the abyss in Independence Square- the brave men and women who hurled stones and bombs for freedom, put body and life in the balance- we have seen. Brave men were slaughtered like their lives did not matter- precision executions, bullets to the head, deadly snipers, high-powered rifles against stones and bottles of petrol. We watched the last gasps of life of so many, writhing in the rhythm of death by gunshot, and each one-- a child of some loving eyes, a father to a hopeful child, a brother and companion, lover of some part of today and tomorrow.

We saw the fires of Independence Square and watched piles or rubble burn to defend a dream. Today, with hope and sadness, the dream rises from scorched cobblestones and deep red stains.
Love heals the wounds of war; love binds the living truth to the fallen. There is a burden now as a nation moves forward, a fresh debt to lives given for a hope. It is sobering and it is sacred, and for the love of freedom, it is now.
 

Ukraine

Watching snipers take down protestors, members of a throng lobbing Molotov cocktails into the police cordons, the growing rows of bodies as protest meets resistance and pays an ultimate price for freedom. Watching helpless as an individual and member of equally helpless western governments as Democracy expresses its messy birth.

I have been in burning cities where tear gas and troops settle the protests, it takes courage to be in EuroMajdan-- to be in Independence Square In Kyev.

I see the resolve of the Ukrainian people, they come to put their lives in the cauldron. They understand the risks but even more fear that they will lose their freedom. Their idea of freedom is not like the U.S. where gun-loving lunatics talk about liberty as if it were just a machine gun fetish, these people want freedom to kill.

No, the people in the Ukraine want freedom to live to build a pleasant nation into a blessing for their children, prosperous and with room for learning and doing. Unlike here, they care for each other to a much greater extent than we show...I cant imagine Tea Party cowards dodging bullets to drag a wounded stranger to cover. I cant imagine the Tea Party people doing anything other than hiding until the fighting is over.

This is why Ukraine is important to the West and to the U.S. they understand the value of democracy and how easily it can be lost-- and how sometimes we must struggle to the last breath to keep it...Democracy....hdm